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Cyclopath
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PostWed Jan 17, 2024 2:07 pm 
jm31828 wrote:
Not sure how that all averages out, and how much of a grain of salt should be taken with any other predictions for the rest of the month or for the rest of the winter?
They predicted the cold snap and then it happened when they said, they predicted it would get warmer and it did. Seems like the predictions have been pretty good.

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Schroder
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PostWed Jan 17, 2024 2:54 pm 

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Gwen
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PostWed Jan 17, 2024 3:47 pm 
Schroder wrote:
Why is this picture upside down?

Tomorrow's not promised to anyone, so be bold, scare yourself, attempt something with no guarantee of success. You'll be amazed at what you can achieve. -Olive McGloin
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gb
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PostWed Jan 17, 2024 4:13 pm 
Quote:
It's interesting that we were seeing maps somewhere a couple of weeks ago showing much above normal temps for January, and then this cold blast hit with record cold that is essentially pulling us well below normal for over a week before we recover. Not sure how that all averages out, and how much of a grain of salt should be taken with any other predictions for the rest of the month or for the rest of the winter?
The easiest forecast on the planet is forecasting much above temperatures after an arctic outbreak. The correlation is around 90%. Typically snow levels will rise to 6000-7000' within 3-4 days.

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Cyclopath
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PostWed Jan 17, 2024 5:33 pm 
Gwen wrote:
Why is this picture upside down?
Anti gravity juice. I don't know, but the webcams are showing correctly now. And I'm glad I'm not up there.

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grannyhiker
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PostThu Jan 18, 2024 9:02 pm 
Troutdale (OR) seems to be in perpetual ice since the arrival of Tuesday's ice storm (aka "silver thaw"). Wednesday the forecast was for 40* by afternoon; it never got above freezing and continued to spit freezing rain. Today, once again, 40* was forecast; instead the temp stayed at 29* with considerable freezing rain. Tomorrow, the NWS stubbornly insists a third time on 40*, but i'm increasingly skeptical. The weather experts are evidently too busy running computer models to look out the window (strong east wind, gusts to 55 mph) or remember their history, that Arctic air trapped in the Columbia Gorge usually takes many days to go away. Lotsa silver, no thaw! Maybe next week?

May your trails be crooked, winding, lonesome, dangerous, leading to the most amazing view.--E.Abbey

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treeswarper
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PostFri Jan 19, 2024 8:19 am 
grannyhiker wrote:
Troutdale (OR) seems to be in perpetual ice since the arrival of Tuesday's ice storm (aka "silver thaw"). Wednesday the forecast was for 40* by afternoon; it never got above freezing and continued to spit freezing rain. Today, once again, 40* was forecast; instead the temp stayed at 29* with considerable freezing rain. Tomorrow, the NWS stubbornly insists a third time on 40*, but i'm increasingly skeptical. The weather experts are evidently too busy running computer models to look out the window (strong east wind, gusts to 55 mph) or remember their history, that Arctic air trapped in the Columbia Gorge usually takes many days to go away. Lotsa silver, no thaw! Maybe next week?
My dad was born and raised in the western part of the gorge. When anyone mentioned living there, he's shake his head and talk about Those Ice Storms. As for the Sunny Okanogan, an inch of new snow fell overnight and that makes for about 3 or 4 on the ground. We are slowly warming up. My dog is able to go on walks again. It's getting better slower.

What's especially fun about sock puppets is that you can make each one unique and individual, so that they each have special characters. And they don't have to be human––animals and aliens are great possibilities
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Cyclopath
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PostSun Jan 21, 2024 2:03 pm 
Yesterday
Yesterday

rossb  Anne Elk
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gb
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PostThu Jan 25, 2024 6:09 am 
With an extended period of atmospheric rivers coming in expect snowpack depths to decrease by 30% or so. Although we are not at 2014-2015 levels we will be in the bottom 10-20% of snowpack depths at this time of year. Perhaps late February and March can help with low snowpack depths.

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Worthington
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PostFri Jan 26, 2024 10:54 am 
gb wrote:
With an extended period of atmospheric rivers coming in expect snowpack depths to decrease by 30% or so. Although we are not at 2014-2015 levels we will be in the bottom 10-20% of snowpack depths at this time of year. Perhaps late February and March can help with low snowpack depths.
We are currently in the 80th percentile of median basically in every basin across the region. From 74% to 103%, but pretty much all in the 80s for snowfall depth and water equivalent. How are we going to find ourselves in the "bottom 10-20% of snowpack depth, AFTER this impending atmospheric river which you say will increase our snow depths increase by "30% or so"? Cliff Mass gets a lot of criticism here for being a drought/snow/AGW polyanna type of optimist, which I think is deserved at times. Your claim seems far more mistaken and innumerate but biased in the opposite direction.

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rossb
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PostFri Jan 26, 2024 11:30 am 
I think what is going to happen is that the actual depth may decrease a bit, but the overall water equivalent will increase. Basically, the snow will become much heavier and more saturated. For example, I like to look at the telemetry for Cabin Creek (Amabalis). It has easy-to-read graphs of temperature at various elevations, as well as precipitation. Last week we had cold and dry snow. Snow depth grew rapidly. Then we transitioned to slush, and it grew a little. Then rain, and it shrunk a little. But it didn't shrink that much. It will often do that. The snow level will basically stay steady even though there is a fair amount of rain or slush. When it comes to things like drought, or even the amount of snow you will see in June, snow water equivalent is a more important measurement. When it comes to things like covering up rocks, depth is more important (although if the snow is especially dry and fluffy, you might sink in and hit the rocks anyway). Of course the order of things matters. If you have rain then snow, you don't build up much. The rain falls, drains away, and then you have dry snow. What we are experiencing (and will experience) is the other way around.

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Malachai Constant
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PostFri Jan 26, 2024 11:39 am 
As we used to say back in the day, it makes for a good base. BTW it was 80 F today in DC, a new all time record.

"You do not laugh when you look at the mountains, or when you look at the sea." Lafcadio Hearn
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Chief Joseph
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PostFri Jan 26, 2024 3:05 pm 
It's crazy, forecast is for 49 degrees here in N Idaho on Monday and has been raining for about a week at just under 3k elevation.

Go placidly amid the noise and waste, and remember what comfort there may be in owning a piece thereof.
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gb
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PostFri Jan 26, 2024 3:12 pm 
Worthington wrote:
gb wrote:
With an extended period of atmospheric rivers coming in expect snowpack depths to decrease by 30% or so. Although we are not at 2014-2015 levels we will be in the bottom 10-20% of snowpack depths at this time of year. Perhaps late February and March can help with low snowpack depths.
We are currently in the 80th percentile of median basically in every basin across the region. From 74% to 103%, but pretty much all in the 80s for snowfall depth and water equivalent. How are we going to find ourselves in the "bottom 10-20% of snowpack depth, AFTER this impending atmospheric river which you say will increase our snow depths increase by "30% or so"? .
Where do you get your numbers?
In addition you don't seem to understand what I said. 45%, 62%, 82%, 82% are the percentage of normal snow depth before the atmospheric river. But even those current snow pack depths pale against the range of snow depths on historic snopack years; likely in the lowest 30% of such years.

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gb
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PostFri Jan 26, 2024 3:16 pm 
rossb wrote:
I think what is going to happen is that the actual depth may decrease a bit, but the overall water equivalent will increase. Basically, the snow will become much heavier and more saturated.
The period of warm temperatures and heavy rainfall is long enough that within a couple of days (out of 5) that meltwater columns will become efficient at throughputting a good deal of meltwater directly to the ground.

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