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Worthington
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Worthington
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PostSat Jan 27, 2024 8:56 am 
gb wrote:
Worthington wrote:
gb wrote:
With an extended period of atmospheric rivers coming in expect snowpack depths to decrease by 30% or so. Although we are not at 2014-2015 levels we will be in the bottom 10-20% of snowpack depths at this time of year. Perhaps late February and March can help with low snowpack depths.
We are currently in the 80th percentile of median basically in every basin across the region. From 74% to 103%, but pretty much all in the 80s for snowfall depth and water equivalent. How are we going to find ourselves in the "bottom 10-20% of snowpack depth, AFTER this impending atmospheric river which you say will increase our snow depths increase by "30% or so"? .
Where do you get your numbers?
There was 1 link in my post. It is to the US dept of agriculture water database, updated daily. https://wcc.sc.egov.usda.gov/reports/UpdateReport.html?report=Washington

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Fedor
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PostSat Jan 27, 2024 3:51 pm 
Glad to see a pattern change with the freezing levels forecast to drop significantly towards the end of next week. Hopefully it coincides with a bit of moisture for some fresh snow too.

Cyclopath
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jaysway
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PostSat Jan 27, 2024 10:16 pm 
Snow water equivalent percentage of 1991-2020 medians, basin-wide:
January 26, 2015
January 26, 2015
January 26, 2024
January 26, 2024

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jaysway
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PostSat Jan 27, 2024 11:18 pm 
Zooming in specific SNOTEL stations, let's look at SWE by season through January 26. Each line represents a season, with the blue line representing the current 2023-2024 season, and the red line representing the 2014-15 season. I just decided to choose some specific stations with data going back a few decades. For the most part, the 2023-2024 season is doing a lot better than the 2014-2015 season.
Having said that, some stations are doing worse in the 2023-2024 season compared with the 2014-2015 season.
Keep in mind, the season is young. Peak snowpack, at least defined by SWE, typically happens between mid-March and the end of April.
El Niņo, which is associated with warmer temperatures and smaller snowpacks, is starting to break down.
Echoing Fedor, at the end of the atmospheric rivers is colder weather, albeit perhaps not as much precipitation as we would hope for. NOAA outlooks:
e
e
Opensnow forecasts:
Fingers crossed that we see more cold temperatures and snow over the next couple of months!

Fedor, RichP, thunderhead
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CC
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CC
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PostThu Feb 01, 2024 10:02 am 
gb wrote:
With an extended period of atmospheric rivers coming in expect snowpack depths to decrease by 30% or so. Although we are not at 2014-2015 levels we will be in the bottom 10-20% of snowpack depths at this time of year. Perhaps late February and March can help with low snowpack depths.
At Stevens we went from 90% avg SWE to 80%. Not so bad. Rain, per se, doesn't melt snow, snow can absorb a lot of water; warm temperatures, especially a warm humid wind, melt snow.

First your legs go, then you lose your reflexes, then you lose your friends. Willy Pep
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gb
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gb
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PostThu Feb 01, 2024 4:04 pm 
CC wrote:
gb wrote:
With an extended period of atmospheric rivers coming in expect snowpack depths to decrease by 30% or so. Although we are not at 2014-2015 levels we will be in the bottom 10-20% of snowpack depths at this time of year. Perhaps late February and March can help with low snowpack depths.
At Stevens we went from 90% avg SWE to 80%. Not so bad. Rain, per se, doesn't melt snow, snow can absorb a lot of water; warm temperatures, especially a warm humid wind, melt snow.
I was talking about snowpack depths as you can see from my quote above. Baker went from 72" to 44", Paradise from 113" to 88" and Mission Ridge from 29" to 21". Hurricane Ridge went from 42" to 24" because of exposure to warm winds. The passes and Washington Pass did better because colder air remained in those areas longer from east flow. The base of Crystal only dropped from 46" to 37" because it is near the crest and in a cold valley, but Crystal Green Valley dropped much more because the air was warm aloft and relatively strong Southerly winds persisted through the period. Webcams show bare patches at the base of Crystal and I see Mission Ridge has remained closed, possibly to avoid denuding certain areas on the runs there. The snowpack in all areas will continue to drain water for another day or two. Having watched Baker snow depths for several decades, the current depth of 44" is only 2-8" more than the very worst years at this time; excepting 1980-81 and 2014-15.
Things look poor for gaining snow for another 10 days or so. I don't know what will happen after that. But many of the poorest snowpack years have started to pick up snow in later February and March. Hopefully that happens this year as well.

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gb
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gb
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PostThu Feb 01, 2024 4:07 pm 
What is currently interesting is that Mammoth Mountain has only had 98" of snowfall all winter but about that much is supposed to fall in the next several days. Hopefully, we eventually get ours.

jaysway, Cyclopath
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Cyclopath
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Cyclopath
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PostFri Feb 02, 2024 12:27 pm 
My cats say it's spring. Unfortunately bugs are starting to agree with them.

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Cyclopath
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PostFri Feb 02, 2024 2:01 pm 
Somebody posted this from Crystal Mountain today. I haven't been there this season.

RumiDude, RichP
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rbuzby
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rbuzby
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PostFri Feb 02, 2024 3:09 pm 
Sorry gang, this is all my fault. I bought snowshoes.

kiliki  SpookyKite89
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philfort
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philfort
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PostSat Feb 03, 2024 10:33 am 
Cyclopath wrote:
Somebody posted this from Crystal Mountain today. I haven't been there this season.
Doesn't look quite that bad on the live webcam right now, so someone may have been playing a prank on you.

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Carbonj
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PostSat Feb 03, 2024 11:02 am 
^ No it is that bad at the base, and they got major stuff to go last weekend on powderbowl and the throne almost to ground.

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RumiDude
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RumiDude
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PostSat Feb 03, 2024 3:34 pm 
This could be a very low water year for our rivers, especially on the Olympic Peninsula. Rumi

"This is my Indian summer ... I'm far more dangerous now, because I don't care at all."
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Cyclopath
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PostSat Feb 03, 2024 6:07 pm 
It's been melting off, there were a lot of bare rocks that are normally snow covered.

jaysway
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Cyclopath
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PostSun Feb 04, 2024 1:26 pm 
Snow line is very high.

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