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Cyclopath
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Cyclopath
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PostWed Feb 28, 2024 2:02 pm 
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Tom
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PostWed Feb 28, 2024 3:09 pm 
^What does that have to do with this topic? Please check generic climate change discussion at the door.

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altasnob
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PostThu Feb 29, 2024 8:50 am 
Snow water equivalent in Washington has been creeping up with the recent snow, but not as much as I had hoped. The latest storm came in a bit warmer than expected with rain at Snoqualmie Pass until almost midnight before finally turning to snow. Huge difference in snowpack from, say, Paradise at 5,400 feet (157 inch base) than base of Crystal ski area 4,400 (57 inch base). Like gb said, a major difference once you get above 5,000 feet in the mountains.

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CC
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PostThu Feb 29, 2024 3:50 pm 
gb wrote:
Late Februrary and early March to the rescue: NWS Seattle Discussion:
Quote:
Heavy precipitation will be enhanced today as the upper level flow shifts southwesterly, allowing for greater moisture fetch ahead of an approaching cold front. The lowlands will see 1 to 3 inches of stratiform rainfall through Thursday morning with the heaviest rain amounts slated for areas along the Pacific Coast. The mountains are on track to see significant snow accumulations above 2000 ft, with 1 to 3 feet over the Olympics and generally 2 to 5 feet over the Cascades through Thursday morning. For higher terrain surrounding Mount Baker and Mount Rainier, the highest peaks may see accumulations surpassing 10 feet of snow. Ensembles maintain good agreement over 1 to 2 feet of snowfall through Snoqualmie and Stevens Passes, with higher probabilities (40 to 50 percent) of over 2 feet through White Pass and along US-20 through the Northern Cascades. Snowfall rates of an inch or more per hour through Stevens Pass this afternoon may cause white-out conditions at times, and conditions over the mountains are favorable for triggering large avalanches. Confidence is high over the significant precipitation totals, with consistently high model guidance over the past several days.
While snowfall depths below 5000' are not likely to reach normal levels, above 5000' they may.
We have been through this discussion before. If you want mountain snow forecasts use NWAC, not NWS. To steal an analogy from economics, NWS (and Cliff Massmedia) have predicted 9 of the last 3 major snowstorms this winter. If this was NWS discussion from wed morning, it was ridiculous. 10 feet in one day at Mt Baker? Never has happened, never will happen there with our snow densities (the US record 24hr snow is 78" of low density snow at 10k altitude in Colorado). Granted, Baker did do very well in this series of storms from last saturday, basically doubling their 57' snowpack. 1 to 2' at Stevens? Yes we got 1.4" of precip as NWAC predicted, but as they also predicted, snow level hung around 4500' for most of the day so we only got 7" of snow.

First your legs go, then you lose your reflexes, then you lose your friends. Willy Pep
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Carbonj
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PostThu Feb 29, 2024 5:17 pm 
Yep kinda agree with you with some models showing multiple feet of snow.Also your avatar photo using gas powered rock drill cobra or pionjar will make you pissed off for any future happiness!

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treeswarper
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PostFri Mar 01, 2024 7:59 am 
Told ya so.

What's especially fun about sock puppets is that you can make each one unique and individual, so that they each have special characters. And they don't have to be human––animals and aliens are great possibilities

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gb
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PostFri Mar 01, 2024 9:11 am 
CC wrote:
gb wrote:
Late Februrary and early March to the rescue: NWS Seattle Discussion:
Quote:
Heavy precipitation will be enhanced today as the upper level flow shifts southwesterly, allowing for greater moisture fetch ahead of an approaching cold front. The lowlands will see 1 to 3 inches of stratiform rainfall through Thursday morning with the heaviest rain amounts slated for areas along the Pacific Coast. The mountains are on track to see significant snow accumulations above 2000 ft, with 1 to 3 feet over the Olympics and generally 2 to 5 feet over the Cascades through Thursday morning. For higher terrain surrounding Mount Baker and Mount Rainier, the highest peaks may see accumulations surpassing 10 feet of snow. Ensembles maintain good agreement over 1 to 2 feet of snowfall through Snoqualmie and Stevens Passes, with higher probabilities (40 to 50 percent) of over 2 feet through White Pass and along US-20 through the Northern Cascades. Snowfall rates of an inch or more per hour through Stevens Pass this afternoon may cause white-out conditions at times, and conditions over the mountains are favorable for triggering large avalanches. Confidence is high over the significant precipitation totals, with consistently high model guidance over the past several days.
While snowfall depths below 5000' are not likely to reach normal levels, above 5000' they may.
We have been through this discussion before. If you want mountain snow forecasts use NWAC, not NWS. If this was NWS discussion from wed morning, it was ridiculous. 10 feet in one day at Mt Baker? Never has happened, never will happen there with our snow densities (the US record 24hr snow is 78" of low density snow at 10k altitude in Colorado). Granted, Baker did do very well in this series of storms from last saturday, basically doubling their 57' snowpack. 1 to 2' at Stevens? Yes we got 1.4" of precip as NWAC predicted, but as they also predicted, snow level hung around 4500' for most of the day so we only got 7" of snow.
What you don't realize is that NWAC and NWS are both at Sandpoint in the same building. They meet to discuss forecasts every morning and afternoon. The same models are used. NWAC probably bases individual SWE forecasts on work originally done by Pam Speers-Hayes in the early 1980's. I had a paper copy of those works. Baker received 70" of snowfall (although it is a little hard to read) but likely more above the ski area as the temperature was right at 32F for period of time. Additionally, I took the AFD to mean that during the storm there could be up to 10' of accumulation at high elevations with lower snow densities- that seems likely based on Baker ski area data, such as it is. NWAC only forecasts at moderate elevations. This winter with significantly higher freezing levels, Baker Lodge at 4200' has not been high enough to stay snow many times while the top of Pan Dome has been just enough higher to maintain snow on many more occasions. You can see that fact in many "NWAC Recent Observations" where snowpits at 5200' or so have shown quite a bit more depth. The difference in snow depths at Paradise and Baker Lodge is also largely reflected in mean snow levels this winter.

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altasnob
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PostSun Mar 03, 2024 8:46 am 
As of 3/1/24, NWAC Snow Depth Climatology Table says Stampede Pass is at 113% of the 30 year normal snowpack, Paradise at 101%, and Mt Hood Meadows at 108%.

philfort
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Scramblin Rover
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PostSun Mar 03, 2024 1:37 pm 
The snow depths are a bit deceptive though, because a whole bunch of low-density snow just fell on top of the previous snowpack. If you look at SWE values, the North Cascades are about 60-70% of normal, the Southern Cascades and Mt. Hood area around 80-90% - still a good improvement, but not quite the same story as the snow depth values tell. Also, while the immediate forecast is cool, El Niño years tend to be warmer than average in March/April. As a result, I'd be surprised if SWE recovered to normal levels, but thankfully it's not going to be a 2015 redux no matter what kind of weather is in store.

jinx'sboy
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jinx'sboy
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PostSun Mar 03, 2024 1:54 pm 
Scramblin Rover wrote:
The snow depths are a bit deceptive though, because a whole bunch of low-density snow just fell on top of the previous snowpack. If you look at SWE values, the North Cascades are about 60-70% of normal, the Southern Cascades and Mt. Hood area around 80-90% - still a good improvement, but not quite the same story as the snow depth values tell.
Harts Pass at 76% of average for SWE. This is up from about 70% just a week or so ago….last I looked, anyway. https://www.nwrfc.noaa.gov/snow/snowplot.cgi?HRPW1 Here’s the whole State. Some nearly OK, some so-so. North Central and NE Wa look pretty poor for SWE. https://wcc.sc.egov.usda.gov/reports/UpdateReport.html;jsessionid=IglaPrwZif87yh88PTHzyJeOyzdCeOe7Kb2j_0ar.nrcsprd0383?report=Washington

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CC
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CC
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PostTue Mar 05, 2024 12:34 pm 
gb wrote:
What you don't realize is that NWAC and NWS are both at Sandpoint in the same building. They meet to discuss forecasts every morning and afternoon. The same models are used. NWAC probably bases individual SWE forecasts on work originally done by Pam Speers-Hayes in the early 1980's. I had a paper copy of those works. Baker received 70" of snowfall (although it is a little hard to read) but likely more above the ski area as the temperature was right at 32F for period of time. Additionally, I took the AFD to mean that during the storm there could be up to 10' of accumulation at high elevations with lower snow densities- that seems likely based on Baker ski area data, such as it is. NWAC only forecasts at moderate elevations. This winter with significantly higher freezing levels, Baker Lodge at 4200' has not been high enough to stay snow many times while the top of Pan Dome has been just enough higher to maintain snow on many more occasions. You can see that fact in many "NWAC Recent Observations" where snowpits at 5200' or so have shown quite a bit more depth. The difference in snow depths at Paradise and Baker Lodge is also largely reflected in mean snow levels this winter.
Baker got about 40" in the 36 hours starting at midnight on 28th. Are you seriously suggesting they got 7 additional feet at higher elevations, and 4 feet more than the US record for 24 hrs? Yes the density gets lower at higher elevations but the atmosphere holds less water, it's not a continuously increase in snow depth at higher elevations, it's a compressive nonlinearity.

First your legs go, then you lose your reflexes, then you lose your friends. Willy Pep
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gb
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PostWed Mar 06, 2024 5:17 pm 
CC wrote:
gb wrote:
What you don't realize is that NWAC and NWS are both at Sandpoint in the same building. They meet to discuss forecasts every morning and afternoon. The same models are used. NWAC probably bases individual SWE forecasts on work originally done by Pam Speers-Hayes in the early 1980's. I had a paper copy of those works. Baker received 70" of snowfall (although it is a little hard to read) but likely more above the ski area as the temperature was right at 32F for period of time. Additionally, I took the AFD to mean that during the storm there could be up to 10' of accumulation at high elevations with lower snow densities- that seems likely based on Baker ski area data, such as it is. NWAC only forecasts at moderate elevations. This winter with significantly higher freezing levels, Baker Lodge at 4200' has not been high enough to stay snow many times while the top of Pan Dome has been just enough higher to maintain snow on many more occasions. You can see that fact in many "NWAC Recent Observations" where snowpits at 5200' or so have shown quite a bit more depth. The difference in snow depths at Paradise and Baker Lodge is also largely reflected in mean snow levels this winter.
Baker got about 40" in the 36 hours starting at midnight on 28th. Are you seriously suggesting they got 7 additional feet at higher elevations, and 4 feet more than the US record for 24 hrs? Yes the density gets lower at higher elevations but the atmosphere holds less water, it's not a continuously increase in snow depth at higher elevations, it's a compressive nonlinearity.
You aren't too good at reading are you. Read the post you just quoted. But, yes, more snow falls at higher elevations up to active storm elevation levels. i.e. Mt Baker at 7000' probably has around 240" of snow depth at this time.

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Cyclopath
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Cyclopath
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PostWed Mar 06, 2024 7:15 pm 
Tom wrote:
^What does that have to do with this topic?
Unusually warm January temperatures are part of the reason we had so little snow and so much rain here. How is this even a question?

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Tom
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PostWed Mar 06, 2024 7:45 pm 
Cyclopath wrote:
Tom wrote:
^What does that have to do with this topic?
Unusually warm January temperatures are part of the reason we had so little snow and so much rain here. How is this even a question?
This topic is not about causes. Please refrain from injecting links relating to the broader topic of climate change which is off limits at NWH.

Mountainfisherman
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treeswarper
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treeswarper
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PostSun Mar 10, 2024 9:22 am 
I think this is the last day, but The Loup was able to reopen. We've got rain in the lower elevations. https://skitheloup.org/

What's especially fun about sock puppets is that you can make each one unique and individual, so that they each have special characters. And they don't have to be human––animals and aliens are great possibilities
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