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FiveNines
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Joined: 01 Oct 2010
Posts: 528 | TRs | Pics
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| mike wrote: | | no one is rebutting the science or even mentioning it. |
| altasnob wrote: | | Washington's legal definition of drought, as "water supply is less than 75 percent of normal, resulting in undue hardships to water users and the environment." |
| Logbear wrote: | | It could be because some of us live in areas that is not experiencing unusually dry conditions.
Oct 2022-Mar 2023 I had 32.67 inches of rain
Oct 2023-Mar 2024 I had 33.83 inches of rain |
| Logbear wrote: | | I live in an area that gets over 48" of rain a year |
~33.3 / 48 = 69% of normal rainfall measured over 2 year period
#do the math
#facts
#trust but verify
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Logbear
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Joined: 13 Sep 2006
Posts: 535 | TRs | Pics
Location: Getchell. Wash |
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Logbear
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 Fri Apr 26, 2024 4:39 pm |
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| FiveNines wrote: | | mike wrote: | | no one is rebutting the science or even mentioning it. |
| altasnob wrote: | | Washington's legal definition of drought, as "water supply is less than 75 percent of normal, resulting in undue hardships to water users and the environment." |
| Logbear wrote: | | It could be because some of us live in areas that is not experiencing unusually dry conditions.
Oct 2022-Mar 2023 I had 32.67 inches of rain
Oct 2023-Mar 2024 I had 33.83 inches of rain |
| Logbear wrote: | | I live in an area that gets over 48" of rain a year |
~33.3 / 48 = 69% of normal rainfall measured over 2 year period
#do the math
#facts
#trust but verify |
Let's make this perfectly clear. The rainfall amounts I listed were for 6 months (Oct-Mar) not annual rainfall.
The average for those 6 months is 33.83". (Oct-Mar2024 was actually 34.41"). My mistake in highlighting the right row.
32.67" Oct22-Mar23
34.41" Oct23-Mar24
33.83" Oct-Mar average over 7 years.
Now the math is 34.41/33.38 =103% of normal since October 2023.
I'm sure there are areas experiencing drought. Just not here.
Annual Rainfall at the Homestead Ranch:
2023: 47.06"
2022: 52.16"
2021: 62.03"
2020: 55.40"
2019: 36.60"
2018: 49.08"
2017: 54.95"
“There is no such thing as bad weather, only inappropriate clothing.” – Sir Ranulph Fiennes
 runup
“There is no such thing as bad weather, only inappropriate clothing.” – Sir Ranulph Fiennes
runup
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huron
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Joined: 13 Sep 2004
Posts: 1043 | TRs | Pics
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huron
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Fri Apr 26, 2024 7:35 pm |
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The State Climatology office issued a forecast update that calls for a substantial chance of higher than average temps and lower than average precip later this summer just in time for fire season.
This is the same office that was the source of all kinds of drama in 2007 with Cliff Mass and buddy Mark Albright (who trolled/sockpuppeted hundreds of times here as Weatherman, SnowandCold, etc.) and other forums after Albright's dismissal.
The nature of the disagreement in 2007 was if snowpack was down 30% (official number in 2007) or 15% (Mass/Albright). No matter who you agree with, it's down. If you are fortunate enough to have spent a few decades here in the mountains this might match your memory also.
I'm glad these reports are making headlines with words like "emergency" and commit myself to making some continual climate focused changes in my lifestyle.
Malachai Constant, RumiDude, Cyclopath, Now I Fly
Malachai Constant, RumiDude, Cyclopath, Now I Fly |
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FiveNines
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Joined: 01 Oct 2010
Posts: 528 | TRs | Pics
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| Logbear wrote: | | Let's make this perfectly clear. The rainfall amounts I listed were for 6 months (Oct-Mar) not annual rainfall. |
Thanks for the correction. I misread your totals as yearly. They were clearly not written that way.
Good science!
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altasnob
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Joined: 29 Aug 2007
Posts: 1432 | TRs | Pics
Location: Tacoma |
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altasnob
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Sat Apr 27, 2024 7:35 am |
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| huron wrote: | | The State Climatology office issued a forecast update that calls for a substantial chance of higher than average temps and lower than average precip later this summer just in time for fire season. |
It says, specifically:
| Quote: | | The three-month outlook for May through July (MJJ) has a high probability of above normal temperatures across all of Washington State, with the odds between 40 and 60% on the three-tiered scale depending on location. For precipitation, there are higher chances of below normal precipitation statewide. The chances of below normal precipitation are greater for northeastern Washington (between 40 and 50%) compared to lesser odds for the rest of the state (between 33 and 40%). |
That text is specifically referring to these graphics:
That to me is different that saying there is a "substantial chance of higher than average temps and lower than average precip later this summer."
This is why we need people like Cliff Mass, who are willing to stand up and force people to look precisely at the facts. Otherwise, we'd still have people walking around saying how the snowpack in the Cascades shrank by 50 percent in the last half-century, as was incorrectly stated in government reports, media coverage, and parroted by former Seattle Mayor Greg Nickels .
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RumiDude
Marmota olympus
Joined: 26 Jul 2009
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Location: Port Angeles |
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RumiDude
Marmota olympus
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Sat Apr 27, 2024 9:29 am |
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| altasnob wrote: | | That to me is different that saying there is a "substantial chance of higher than average temps and lower than average precip later this summer." |
I could insert "I suppose that depends on your definition of substantial chance is". But that is how almost every kind of public warning system operates. I remember a few years back a huge discussion here on NWHikers about the scale used for avalanche warning. The discussion centered around whether or not the descriptors adequately and clearly indicated the exact danger/risk. Similar to this, the words used to describe the level of danger/hazard mean different things to different individuals. It's imperfect, but if someone is interested, they can easily research the topic and discover the details.
| altasnob wrote: | | This is why we need people like Cliff Mass, who are willing to stand up and force people to look precisely at the facts. |
It's also why we need people who are willing to examine Cliff Mass's blog posting and point out his errors. What's good for the goose is good for the gander.
Rumi
"This is my Indian summer ... I'm far more dangerous now, because I don't care at all."
"This is my Indian summer ... I'm far more dangerous now, because I don't care at all."
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Joseph
Joseph
Joined: 13 Jun 2018
Posts: 266 | TRs | Pics
Location: Seattle |
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Joseph
Joseph
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Sat Apr 27, 2024 9:57 am |
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| Cyclopath wrote: | Found the flat earther!  Is all a conspiracy. All the world's scientists are trying to fool us into not pollution so much. Only bloggers know this one trick! |
"trying to fool us into not pollution so much" - beyond the snark, you might also review your posts before submitting, lol. And lose the silly strawman arguments. Maybe I found the Green New Deal supporter - where we spend billions (trillions?) to "advance “social, economic, racial, regional and gender-based justice and equality and cooperative and public ownership" er... I mean, to save the earth from catostrophic climate change.
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Cyclopath
Faster than light
Joined: 20 Mar 2012
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Location: Seattle |
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Cyclopath
Faster than light
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Sat Apr 27, 2024 11:11 am |
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| RumiDude wrote: | | It's also why we need people who are willing to examine Cliff Mass's blog posting and point out his errors. |
"Errors"
Sore Feet
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gb
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Joined: 01 Jul 2010
Posts: 6316 | TRs | Pics
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gb
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Sat Apr 27, 2024 11:30 am |
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| altasnob wrote: | | RumiDude wrote: | | Forecasting larger weather patterns for larger areas can be fairly accurate, depending on how one defines accurate. |
I don't know how you define accurate, but NOAA says "a 10-day—or longer—forecast is only right about half the time." Cliff Mass calls long term forecast snake oil and not possible for both theoretical and practical reasons. |
This "argument" shows a lack of knowledge. CPC has Outlooks that go out over a year. Do you want to bet that this summer won't be warmer and drier than normal (with a bias towards early summer); cause I'll take that bet.
Maybe you think that one week of cooler and wetter than normal will ameliorate the drought conditions in Washington. I'll give you a clue: it won't. All this will do is push out the beginning of more severe drought conditions by about two weeks for both theoretical and practical reasons.
Cyclopath
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altasnob
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Joined: 29 Aug 2007
Posts: 1432 | TRs | Pics
Location: Tacoma |
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altasnob
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Sat Apr 27, 2024 12:16 pm |
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| gb wrote: | | Do you want to bet that this summer won't be warmer and drier than normal; |
Absolutely, I would take this bet and anyone who wouldn't is a fool. I'll explain.
Take the three-month outlook for May through July that I posted above, and is cited by the state climatologist. Lets start with temperature and lets say we are in Seattle. For this, NOAA is saying there is 40-50% of above normal temperature. But if read NOAA's How to Read the 3-class Three-Month Outlook maps it explains that when there is, say, a 40% chance of above normal temperatures, there is a 60% chance of normal, or below normal temperatures. Of course, it would be more likely that is above, than below, but if I "win" the bet with a "normal" outcome, I would have a better chance of winning than you (because I win on the tie, i.e. "normal"). If we use the 50% number, it would mean there is a 33% chance of normal, and a 17% chance of below normal temperatures (so I would still have a 50% chance of winning, equal to you).
Now lets look at Seattle for precipitation, which is listed as 33-40% of below normal precipitation. If we use the higher, 40% number, that means there is a 60% chance of above normal or normal precipitation (33% chance of normal plus 27% chance of above normal).
This is why I take exception with anyone trying to dumb down these statistics and say there is a "substantial chance" of above normal temperature and below normal precipitation. That is not what the statistics say. Notice the state climatologists does not use the phrase "substantial chance."
Here is a link to all the various NOAA seasonal forecasts with explanations on how to read the maps:
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/seasonal.php?lead=2
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Cyclopath
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Joined: 20 Mar 2012
Posts: 7768 | TRs | Pics
Location: Seattle |
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Cyclopath
Faster than light
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Sat Apr 27, 2024 12:45 pm |
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| altasnob wrote: | | Cliff Mass calls long term forecast snake oil and not possible for both theoretical and practical reasons. |
| gb wrote: | | This "argument" shows a lack of knowledge. CPC has Outlooks that go out over a year. |
Notice that we're talking about long term climate forecasts, which are being confused for long term weather forecasts, a completely different thing.
This is a technique Jordan Peterson uses a lot. Here's an academic article on how it works:
https://academic.oup.com/pq/advance-article/doi/10.1093/pq/pqae021/7655754
This involves co-opting a word or phrase and covertly misusing it to achieve a rhetorical sleight of hand. By secretly changing the meaning of the term, they lure their audiences into committing the fallacy of equivocation.
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altasnob
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Location: Tacoma |
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altasnob
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Sat Apr 27, 2024 1:11 pm |
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| Cyclopath wrote: | | Notice that we're talking about long term climate forecasts, which are being confused for long term weather forecasts, a completely different thing. |
I am talking about NOAA's Climate Prediction Center's three month outlook, which is the data that the state climatologist primarily used in its most recent outlook dated 4/18, and is the data that Ecology relied upon when issuing their emergency drought declaration. No Jordan Peterson techniques here, just the straight facts.
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gb
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Joined: 01 Jul 2010
Posts: 6316 | TRs | Pics
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gb
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Sat Apr 27, 2024 2:42 pm |
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| gb wrote: | | Do you want to bet that this summer won't be warmer and drier than normal; |
| altasnob wrote: | | Absolutely, I would take this bet |
Well you are the fool. You are on on the bet. It will be above normal with below normal precip the first half of the summer (June and July). Let's use Quillayute, Bellingham, and Seattle (Sea Tac); for east of the Cascades, Wenatchee and Spokane. Too bad the bet is not for money.
The loser will post to this thread and admit he was wrong. Sound good? You can use the excuse that you didn't know any better for practical and theoretical reasons.
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peter707
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peter707
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Sat Apr 27, 2024 3:22 pm |
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This needs a bit more specification, which of these is intended?
"For all 5 locations, the temperature will be above normal and the precipitation will be below normal?"
"For a majority of the 5 locations, the temperature will be above normal and the precipitation will be below normal?"
"For one of 5 locations, the temperature will be above normal and the precipitation will be below normal?"
"For all 5 locations, either the temperature will be above normal or the precipitation will be below normal?"
"For a majority of the 5 locations, either the temperature will be above normal or the precipitation will be below normal?"
"For one of 5 locations, either the temperature will be above normal or the precipitation will be below normal?"
 11,000' on Mt. Adams, Summer 2022
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Logbear
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Joined: 13 Sep 2006
Posts: 535 | TRs | Pics
Location: Getchell. Wash |
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Logbear
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Sat Apr 27, 2024 3:56 pm |
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I'm placing my bet on the favorite to show.
I predict boring, normal weather. 20 % of normal.
“There is no such thing as bad weather, only inappropriate clothing.” – Sir Ranulph Fiennes
“There is no such thing as bad weather, only inappropriate clothing.” – Sir Ranulph Fiennes
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