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forest gnome
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PostFri Apr 27, 2012 6:36 am 
ahh yes but how will backpackerjoe protect hisself from a charging momma bear !!?? embarassedlaugh.gif

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RumiDude
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PostFri Apr 27, 2012 7:36 am 
johnson37 wrote:
RumiDude wrote:
johnson37 wrote:
Rumi, be sure to let us know when you get that hair split.
I'm sure you will let me know. *bigstayclassygrins* Rumi
Yes, it never gets old watching you question others' decision making and then try to explain it as "read my post more carefully."
The OP asked for an opinion and I offered one. Does this offend you? If it does offend you, then please explain to me how. I have not ridiculed the OP even though others have. Rumi

"This is my Indian summer ... I'm far more dangerous now, because I don't care at all."
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HundsSolo
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PostFri Apr 27, 2012 8:01 am 
I think we are forgetting about something here. Our comfort levels. If you feel uncomfortable having someone else ( a stranger) on the trail with you then you won't enjoy your time with in the woods. This was the case. It may have been different with me or you as the case is with some of you. And think this is where the gut instinct also plays a part because it involves our comfort level. So some of you who may not seen him as a threat, but it did to him and even if he would have continued on, he probably would not have enjoyed his hike.

The Mountains are Calling - I must go and PLAY! If you don't Respect Mother Nature, Mother Nature won't respect you. Wag More and Bark Less smile.gif
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RumiDude
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PostFri Apr 27, 2012 9:58 am 
joker wrote:
Which brings me next to: so what IS a "gut call?" I think of this as being a decision one makes almost instantly, before one can explain to one's self any analysis behind the decision." RumiDude - would you define it similarly or differently?
Back in the mid 1980s I was doing post graduate studies in counselling. One of the issues with counselling is counsellor bias, particularly intuition and gut feelings. Intuition and gut feelings can be helpful, particularly when trying to explore another person's motives and intentions, but a high degree of caution must be exercised when doing so. Counsellors can allow their intuitions and gut feelings to becomer the paradigm through which all the other information gets filtered, overriding other possibilities and and explanations. In other words, a counsellor may see all the information as confirming his/her gut feeling, even though the opposite may be true. The gut feeling or intuition even affects the information the counsellor seeks and discards. In the end, intuition and gut feeling is more likely to negatively affect analysis than help unless extreme caution is observed. Usually this requires a referral to confirm or reject because intuition is so difficult to overcome. So yes, gut feelings or intuitions can be those instantaneous decisions. Other times it doesn't appear to the person to be a quick/instant but rather a slow sibconscious process because the person experiences it as a gradual revelation. Many scientific philosophers believe social humans evolved to make quickevaluations of other people, mostly through visual cues. Is this person friend or foe? And if a friend, does this person like or dislike me? Is this person telling the truth? These scientist believe these are the kinds of questions we evolved to make because human interaction is so important. Just looking at it that way, one might conclude humans are very accurate in determining whether another is truthful, friendly, loving, trustworthy, etc. But the other side of the coin is that human evolved to gain cooperation from others and thus the ability to convince others they were loving, truthful, trustworthy, etc. Anyway, human intuition about other people is a mixed bag. Being able to judge another person instantaneously is very problematic. And that is what occassioned this thread. The OP judged the man to not look like a hiker, even before the man got out of his truck. The OP's gut feeling about the man quite possibly colored the interpretation of all the other information, thus self confirming the original gut feeling about the man. He sat in his truck drinking what looked like apple juice from a gallon jug. Is that suspicious? He had a gun. In light of all on this board who carry guns, is that suspicious? He geared up. Is that suspicious? He got an axe out of his truck bed. Is that suspicious? It does seem suspicious IF one already has a gut feeling that the guy is up to no good. Otherwise these are just a collection of innocuous facts about a man at the trail head. The axe gets a lot of emphasis from the OP as well as from others. But why is it considered an indication the man is dangerous? Would a chainsaw or buck saw be less dangerous an indicator? A guy pulling out an axe at the trailhead would seem to indicate he was most likely going to do some sort of trail work or something similar. If he pulled out an axe and then walked into a bank ... that would be very odd and suspicious, but not at a trailhead. If one has a gut feeling about something, don't ignore it. Investigate it and try to determine if it is justified. But as I said with counsellors, it is difficult to override those intuitions objectively. In the end, if one still is so uncomfortable they cant get past their gut feeling, then they should not subject themselves to such and change thir plans accordingly. Rumi

"This is my Indian summer ... I'm far more dangerous now, because I don't care at all."
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RumiDude
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PostFri Apr 27, 2012 10:19 am 
cefire wrote:
often but not always gut decision-making performs significantly better than chance although we 'feel' that it should be as RumiDude puts it equal to 'random selection'...
Just a few points. The article you cited does not state what you have stated. the article stated:
Quote:
In total, he describes the results of nine different experiments, conducted on more than 1000 subjects. All of the experiments revealed slight yet statistically significant psi anomalies, with an average effect size of 0.21 across all experiments.
The article describe the differences as slight but statistically significant whereas you stated "gut decision-making performs significantly better than chance", which is not the same. Statiistically significant is a term which means it is true and not by chance. The actual difference was only slight, with an average effect size of 0.21 across all nine experiments, not significantly better as you stated. Thanks for the link, it is an interesting topic. Rumi

"This is my Indian summer ... I'm far more dangerous now, because I don't care at all."
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joker
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PostFri Apr 27, 2012 10:57 am 
RumiDude - I agree with most of your points in your latest two posts. It was the blanket statement of
Quote:
Studies about the dependability of gut instinct show that it is no better than random selection.
that struck me as ignoring the types of studies that show types of decisions that contradict this statement. Given the sometimes-effectiveness of intuition, I think it's important to be a bit more precise in these sorts of statements, lest we encourage people who have seen intuition be effective miss the point that there are indeed places where it breaks down. I think there is one point in your recent posts that you're possibly missing - the OP tells about the overt and most memorable clues noticed at the TH. But were there other, subtler, behavioral cues that added to the "gut feeling" that never made it up into the conscious internal discussion about why it was a good day to hike elsewhere? I don't think we'll ever know in this case. Did this person make a good call? Well, if they had a good hike, and if they don't generally run around in fear of others, probably so. They may perhaps have lost an opportunity to interact positively with someone whose experience is clearly outside of theirs - if we do this too often our world does become smaller. But If that's not their M.O. and they had a good hike, life is good. And who knows, there is at least a non-zero chance that they avoided becoming the subject of a newspaper story. The research I've seen would suggest that there is a high probability that their intuition was being fed more by the sorts of biases you learned about when studying for counseling, but you never know...

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harrymalamute
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PostFri Apr 27, 2012 11:44 am 
choosing not to be a victim in the forest or a grocery store parking lot at midnight is always a proactive mind set and being a solo hiker would likely elevate the need. does that mean being excessively paranoid? No. It just means keeping an awareness of your surrounding and don't leave yourself open to a blitz type of attack by a strangers smiling face. that doesn't mean you have to be cold and impersonal, it just means that while you encounter a stranger on the trail you can smile back but the whole time in the back of my mind I'd be evaluating their body language and be on the ready for any quick movements on their part. The op left the scene and that's fine, I'm an instinct kind of person and don't care about any scientific studies. non of those scientists work with the criminally insane like I do or have they had the experience of a sucker punch for no apparent reason. Ok so the op was in a parking lot and had the choice to leave. what if your already out there on the trail? if your not prepared mentally, physically or weapon wise, (pick your tools) spray, big red dog, tomahawk, bowie knife, boomerang or fire arm ( I prefer all the above) plus I'm a biter hockeygrin.gif The statistics are low but it only takes 1 event to be a life changer. attacked cross country skier come prepared and sleep well at night smile.gif

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joker
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PostFri Apr 27, 2012 11:53 am 
I agree with most of what you wrote, but have to say that who knows if the researchers in question have every been sucker punched for no apparent reason etc. I know I have, and I don't see how that changes reality of accuracy of intuition in any way. I'd add that if one finds themselves "on high alert" in most encounters with strangers, they might consider if they have calibrated themselves well, and whether the social and nervous system costs are worth the tradeoff of the small increment of added safety. But that's a very personal decision.

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harrymalamute
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PostFri Apr 27, 2012 12:47 pm 
Quote:
I don't see how that changes reality of accuracy of intuition in any way.
accuracy isn't as important as erring on the side of caution. ie: drive away or maintain a proactive awareness in our society.
Quote:
I'd add that if one finds themselves "on high alert" in most encounters with strangers, they might consider if they have calibrated themselves well, and whether the social and nervous system costs are worth the trade off of the small increment of added safety. But that's a very personal decision.
This is truly the fine line between healthy awareness vs paranoia and as you say it is very personal and subjective to each and every scenario. for instance harry might sound like Rambo with an array of implements dangling around, and hiking all weirded out about strangers. not so. each trip is adjusted accordingly. if I'm in a group in the local park I'd probably only have the Swiss pocket knife,if I'm in a group horse ride we only need one fire arm between all of us ( cougar or broken leg) if I'm alone in N. Idaho tripping the Selkirks then I discreetly have weapons and decoder ring ( energy power pill) and the senses turned up a notch. erring on the side of caution be it a steep snow field or guarding one self from an attack can't be a bad thing as long as you don't let it ruin your psych.

hikes and climbs with malamute
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Slide Alder Slayer
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PostFri Apr 27, 2012 1:29 pm 
Profiling is what happens at airports or our national borders to pick out suspected smugglers and sometimes terrorists for questioning who exhibit a series of behaviors a trained individual can detect. Police profile suspects, well trained loss prevention specialist are excellent at detecting behavior relating to theft and so on and so on; observing a behavior and translating that to an intention is now a science. A gut reaction is more like untrained profiling and I’m not talking about profiling based on prejudice which is abhorrent. Having said that, gut reactions aren’t necessarily inaccurate but more akin to having a reaction to a perceived behavior or set of behaviors; be that as it may I spent a career working with patients in chemical dependency treatment and defendants in criminal justice system who often said “I wished I would have listened to my gut instincts sooner in life.”

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Dancing Hiker
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PostSun Apr 29, 2012 3:45 pm 
Without reading all the posts, if you two were the only one's in the parking lot....why didn't he just kill you there? It seems highly unlikely he'd let you see the gun and the axe and then expect you to follow him into the woods.

Dancing hiker...formerly known as slowhiker, but was afraid I'd be confused with Slow Hiker, and slowwalker.
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olderthanIusedtobe
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PostSun Apr 29, 2012 3:54 pm 
RumiDude wrote:
twice I have met people at the trailhead after meeting them on the same plane flying into a major city.
I sat next to a couple on a flight from Seattle to Denver, and then sat next to the same couple from Denver to Dayton. What are the odds of that happening?

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Helix
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PostSun Apr 29, 2012 3:59 pm 
Is say the odds are pretty good. Did that happen to be a connecting flight through Denver?

Such is life in the West. And the farther West the more the such.
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olderthanIusedtobe
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PostSun Apr 29, 2012 4:02 pm 
Yeah it was a connection, and it's not so unusual that we were on the same connecting flight, but seats next to each other on both flights? I booked well in advance and there were plenty of open seats when I picked mine. I've never had the same random seat mates on multiple flights before. Maybe I'm misreading your question. We did have to switch planes, so we weren't sitting in the exact same seats on both flights.

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Hulksmash
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PostSun Apr 29, 2012 5:25 pm 
By chance i ended up on the Beaver Lake trail today. I'm not gonna read al 9 pages of this thread....of the random ones i did read wow....what a bunch of imagination run a muck. ykm.gif Now i'm gonna ruin everyone's fun. rolleyes.gif The trail is a blowdown fest. frown.gif I counted 44 blow downs left to remove on the trail. What i mean by 44 left, is mister open carry creepy axe dude cleared about 30 of them. Clearly this guys intent was to make this hike better for others. Any one who willingly takes on try to take on that many blow downs by him self is a dam hero in my book.

"Bears couldn't care less about us....we smell bad and don't taste too good. Bugs on the other hand see us as vending machines." - WetDog Albuterol! it's the 11th essential
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