[Slugman]

The east coast media dunces are already blathering on about how the Steelers are going to beat the Seahawks. One prediction is Steelers 27, Seahawks 17. Now, it may happen since anything is possible, but there is no logical reason whatsoever to believe it will. Here's why: The Seahawks' defense is superior to the Steelers'. The Steelers need to blitz to pressure the quarterback, a tactic that leaves other options open to a well-coached and quarterbacked team like Seattle. The Seahawks get pressure rushing their normal package, meaning other options are still defended. Apparently shutting down the "unstoppable" Steve Smith and crushing the "best ever" Jake Delhomme just hasn't gotten the message across to the pundits. The Seahawks' offense is light-years ahead of the Steelers'. The Hawks' running game is so superior that comparisons are ludicrous, and the passing game is also far more productive and dependable. The Hawks have so many weapons, you'd think their offense was an NRA convention. The main reason some like Pittsburgh is actually because of that team's failings. They won three games on the road because they weren't good enough to get a bye week or a home game, things that are awarded on merit to better teams like the Seahawks. Digging yourself out of a hole is a sign of toughness to be sure, but being good enough and smart enough (and lucky enough) to stay out of the hole to begin with is even better. Even just looking at the conference championship games makes Seattle a prohibitive favorite, or at least it should. Denver was still in the game half way through the fourth quarter, down by just ten points and then getting the ball back. Yes, the Steelers shut them down and then scored again to clinch, but they have a habit of starting strong, then fading and allowing a comeback by the other team, and then having to fight to hold on to the victory. They did the same thing in the Colts game, barely winning even though they looked dominant for most of the game. The Seahwks, however, dominated Carolina from the coin toss to the final gun. The game was far more of a blowout than the 20-point margin would indicate. Halfway through the fourth quarter the Seahawks were up by 27 and the game was long out of reach for the Panthers. The Panthers' two scores came on a bad call by the refs and a late touchdown that was utterly meaningless. The closest analogy to that game's competitiveness is the ultra-short cartoon "Bambi versus Godzilla", where Godzilla's foot crushes Bambi into jelly. If these two teams played again next week, the Seahawks would undoubtedly embarrass them again. The Steelers' only hope is to start strong, get up by a couple of touchdowns early and then try to hang on. There are just a couple of problems with this: The Seahawks defense starts out terrific and only gets better as the game progresses, and their offense scores early and often, and dominates possesion of the ball. Pittsburgh will have trouble scoring while sitting on the bench during one long Hawks drive after another. The best offensive line in football (the Hawks'), coupled with the best blocking fullback and two excellent tight ends, will pick up the Steelers' blitzes, and Mr Cool, Mat Hasselbeck, will pick their exposed secondary apart. When Pittsburgh adjusts to that tactic, Shaun Alexander will hurt them repeatedly, then if the Steelers adjust to that then it's back to the air to D-Jack, Engram, Stevens, Jurevicious, even the backup quarterback Seneca Wallace. I almost feel sorry for the Steelers. Almost. What about the coaches, you ask? It's Holmgren all the way in big games. He has four wins in five championship-level games, three for three in conference finals, one of two in Super Bowls. Cowher is just the opposite, winning just two of seven. He is two for six in conference finals (even though five conference finals were home games) and losing his only Super bowl game. Look for Holmgren to solve whatever wrinkles Cowher tries, and for him to stymie Cowher with some surprises of his own. The game will be much closer than the Carolina game to be sure, and Pittsburgh could win if the Seahawks lay an egg and play poorly. But when was the last time that happened? (Four months ago). The Sluggish prediction for the final score? I see Seattle getting between 20 and 30 points, while Pittburgh will manage only between 13 and 17. My predictions for the Carolina game proved accurate, as I has Seattle getting between 27 and 34, with Carolina good for between 13 and 21. My only mistake was too give the Panthers a bit too much credit, as they were very lucky to put 14 on the Hawks. Needless to say, I'm going to be putting some dough on the Hawks (+3.5) at a legal betting venue. (PS: I was born in Pittsburgh, so there is no "hometown bias" to my pick of the Hawks).

[Mtn Dog]

I agree Slugman, wholeheartedly. The Steelers were only one game away from not making the playoffs at all. To their defense, they did defeat some significant NFC teams during the regular season but that doesn't mean much now. I thought for sure they would fall apart against Denver but it was the other way around (too much pressure in front of the home crowd on a beautiful winter day? who knows...) The Colts game wasn't as close as the score showed given Polamalu's wrongly reversed interception. But you're right, the Steelers were trying to hold on more than they were trying to dominate. Bettis is a good running back, but he's in his last season and the Seahawk defense can probably contain him. Polamalu is an effective and fast defensive back but even he won't be able to see Shaun Alexander when he's writhing his way through the offensive line. And all he needs is four or five yards per play to keep drives going. The Vegas line is based on the notion that if a 6th seed team can win three playoff games on the road they can beat anyone, but they are now playing a first seed team from the other conference; a conference that has had more superbowl wins in recent years (Patriots aside for a moment). The odds are also based on the idea that the AFC is stronger this year than the NFC, can someone explain that? Detroit is only three hours from PA but that won't equate to 'home field advantage' in a superbowl environment. The bright lights and pressure can have a strange effect on the best of players. I would love to see football finish with a best of three series or something to help overcome this like the best of 7s they have in baseball and basketball but the physical nature of football makes this very infeasible. So it's one shot and one shot only for the prize. And this is the other way in which the Seahawks have an edge, they can maintain composure. The Steelers were freaking out when Bettis fumbled to eventually give the Colts eight points. On the other hand, the Seahawks kept their wits when things weren't going well in the first quarter against the Redskins.

[Slugman]

I'm impressed that someone actually read most or all the way through my post! You are right about the Colts game and the bad calls making it closer than it should have been. But my point is still valid that the Steelers start strong then fade as the game progresses. The Seahawks cannot be beaten simply by a team getting up on them then trying to hold on. Look at the Titans game, where the Hawks scored at will down the stretch after trailing by ten points at the start of the fourth quarter. Even more impressive than the Hawks' consecutive touchdown drives was their running out the entire last five minutes of the game, making sure the Titans could not even hope to score again. I think the AFC was the stronger conference. But the Seahawks totally dominated the slightly weaker NFC. If a team plays an inferior team and destroys them, then it's not fair to say that they played a weak team. This is what was said of the Hawks' victory over the Eagles, that the Eagles were weak. But were they "42-0" weak? Well, the week before, the Eagles beat the Packers, and the week after the drubbing by the Hawks, the Eagles took the Giants to overtime before losing. But still the Hawks get no respect. Not until the Steelers players are sitting on the sidelines with their heads in their hands, and their wives are crying in the stands, will the Hawks get the respect they deserve. I like what Art Theil wrote in the PI today: that it's no longer a question of "IF", but of "how many" (Super Bowl wins for the Hawks). GO HAWKS!!!

[borank]

Since the Seahawks are little known to the vast majority of football followers, the betting line has to favor Pittsburgh to get any action on the Seahawks at all. But you may find a few of the national media types that will pick the Hawks to win outright. When the Hawks took the 2nd half kickoff and rammed it down Carolina's throat for another TD, I suddenly believed for the first time that the Seahawks could actually WIN the superbowl. Clearly they were the best in the NFC. It seemed to me after the Giants debacle, the Hawks have gotten progressively stronger, and are playing at a level now where their 'weak' division and 'soft' schedule are irrelevant. They can only play the teams on their schedule and are winning convincingly. Pittsburgh may have been a 6 seed, but they could have been a 3 seed just as easily (same record & same division as Cincinnati), so don't let the seeding fool you. And unlike either the Redskins or the Panthers, the Steelers have a balanced offense and will be a much tougher offensive team than the Hawks have played thus far in the playoffs. The Hawks have only faced a 3-4 defense once this season (Dallas) and had issues, but that was long ago and a couple levels of play lower than where they're at now. If the Hawks play like they did yesterday, with their balanced offense and no turnovers, they will be hard to beat. Who cares what the national media types think? Gads, look at their records on their 'expert' picks - what a joke. For example, Sportsline.com writers Prisco and Judge are 2-8 and 3-7 this post season. The closest to fair national reporting that I’ve found (and not all that close, but better than the others) is espn.com, but so what? While it’s fun to read stuff about the Hawks, ultimately, to see the opposition looking befuddled like Carolina did, that’s priceless!

[Allison]

I hope the media keeps ignoring the Hawks for the next two weeks. It will make it that much sweeter.

[Mtn Dog]

That's another good point, Slugman; the Steelers left the door open for Denver in the fourth quarter when the Seahawks were mathematically unreachable by the end of the 3rd. And controlling the clock is very big in football. The Seahawks have Superbowl inexperience working against them but so do the Steelers, they haven't been there since 1980. And Borank the fact is they didn't get the better record against the Bengals to solidify the 3rd seed, even if they had they still would have had to play in the first week of the playoffs. And the Colts and Denver still mounted solid drives against them in spite of ultimately losing. I think the demoralization factor was huge in the NFC Championship. The Panthers showed quite a few signs of desperation early when they saw it slipping away. If the Seahawks can score first and hold the Steelers at bay they may start committing the same stupid mistakes.

[Slugman]

One thing I know for certain is that the next two weeks are going to seem like an eternity. I wish I could just hibernate for about ten days, wake up and start getting primed for the game. The NFL playoffs are the grandest spectacle in sports since lions were eating Christians! Remember that old Bugs Bunny cartoon where Bugs was being chased around the Colosseum by Yosemite Sam? One of my favorite sight gags in that episode is the poster on the wall touting the "Detroit Lions" showing actual lions.

[Mount Logan]

I hope you guys are right, and I hope you leave these posts in place after the game so we can see how your predictions compare to the big game. Seahawks + Super Bowl = Ethereal

[MtnGoat]

[Backpacker Joe]

Well, Mr. Sluggos writing not withstanding, I think it'll be a close game and it will be difficult to win. Good luck Hawks.

[wildernessed]

Seattle hasn't seen a defense like Pittsburg's yet, but I would agree that the two teams playing are the best in their respective conferences. If you can stop or beat the the blitz you can win. It will be a physical game that's for sure.

[Backpacker Joe]

[Slugman]

I do know how it ended up: a Seahawks victory. Or have you forgotten that little fact? The Hawks have been playing better and better since then as well. Pittsburgh's defense will hold the Hawks down a bit no doubt, but the Steelers complete lack of a running game will make them unable to beat the Hawks defense for more than a couple touchdowns. Beat the blitz, beat the Steelers, and the Hawks have the best O-line in the game, plus the best blocking fullback. Look for quick out passes to Jerramy Stevens to burn the blitz again and again. And Shaun will punish them for vacating the "box" whenever they blitz. The Steelers are as good as dead unless the Hawks just give the game away through poor play. Count on Cowher to make at least two bone-headed mistakes that will hurt his team. And the Steelers are the worst team in NFL history at clock management. Their stupidity in this regard is often beyond belief. The Hawks are a dominant team, the Steelers have just been hot lately. Hot streaks always come to an end, but domination lasts forever.

[Stefan]

I predict it will not be the execution of plays, but the gameplan by the Steelers that will allow them to win. I think the coaching of the Seahawks will be caught off guard. Steelers 31. Seahawks 21.

[Slugman]

You mean they will beat the gameplan devised by the same coaching staff that shut down the "unstoppable" Steve Smith who had just embarrassed the "best defense in the NFL" Chicago Bears? Good luck with that theory. Don't mistake my meaning here: the Steelers could win. My point is simply that the Hawks have shown themselves to be superior to the Steelers in every aspect of the game, so that there is no reason to believe the Steelers will win. But when the game is actually played, anything can happen. Hey, Goliath was a 21 point favorite over David, and we all know how that turned out.