[David¹]

http://science.nasa.gov/headlines/y2006/15aug_backwards.htm I got all excited reading this article because it's been 2 years since we've had a good show of Northern Lights, but then they threw this in... "Even if Cycle 24 has truly begun, "don't expect any great storms right away." Solar cycles last 11 years and take time to build up to fever pitch" Heck what's a couple more years of waiting?

[moosefish]

[jimmymac]

That's actually great timing. If the next cycle came and went too soon, Kasey might not remember it. I was 25 before I remeber seeing my first display, but my parents talk like seeing the Northern Lights was a fairly common when I was very small.

[MtnGoat]

[David¹]

[Rob Jordan]

I just got an alert yesterday from the aurora forecasting people in Alaska. They say aurora may be visible in the northern US either tonight (Friday night) if it's on time or Saturday night if it's late.

[SlowWalker]

Right on! I'll be in a dark place with clear skies looking up I've only ever seen the aurora from 30,000 feet on a plane over Greenland bound for Europe. Seeing a real show, though, is on my lifetime to-do list.

[David¹]

The CME already hit, it was weak, so no auroras this time. It was only a C class explosion so I'm not surprised. Generally it's the M or X class flares that spark auroras at these latitudes. MtnGoat is right, keep an eye on Spaceweather, it will keep you up to date.

[MtnGoat]

yup, no show this time. the shock hit us at about 1600 UTC, as you can see from the 100km/s jump in solar wind velocity (yellow graph) and the jump in temperature (green graph). The problem is we only get shows when the magnetic field component for the earth's local field is pushed S at the same time, and this time it stayed N (Red line is above the dashed center line). Had it hit at 700-1000UTC when the field was way S, we probably would have had a show. http://www.sec.noaa.gov/ace/MAG_SWEPAM_24h.html

[SlowWalker]

Thanks for bursting my bubble. I'll just look at stars and man-made satellites then. If I don't see any of them, I'll at least watch a couple of Seattleites.

[liembo]

(mid latitudes magnetically speaking, which does cover northern WA) Subject: [Aurorawatch] Middle Latitude Auroral Activity WATCH - 27-28 August MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY WATCH Issued: 16:50 UTC on 27 August 2006 Solar Terrestrial Dispatch www.spacew.com VALID BEGINNING AT: EFFECTIVE IMMEDIATELY VALID UNTIL: 24:00 UTC (6 pm EDT) ON 28 AUGUST HIGH RISK PERIOD: 27 - EARLY 28 AUGUST (UTC DAYS) MODERATE RISK PERIOD: 27-28 AUGUST PREDICTED ACTIVITY INDICES: 24, 27, 12, 8 (27 AUG - 30 AUG) POTENTIAL MAGNITUDE OF MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY: MODERATE POTENTIAL DURATION OF THIS ACTIVITY: MAIN BELT = 12-18 HOURS MINOR BELT = 18-36 HOURS ESTIMATED OPTIMUM OBSERVING CONDITIONS: NEAR LOCAL MIDNIGHT EXPECTED LUNAR INTERFERENCE: NONE OVERALL OPPORTUNITY FOR OBSERVATIONS FROM MIDDLE LATITUDES: FAIR AURORAL ACTIVITY *MAY* BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM... (THIS LINE IS VALID *ONLY* IF FAVORABLE STORM CONDITIONS OCCUR) SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA TO IDAHO TO MONTANA TO SOUTH DAKOTA TO MINNESOTA TO WISCONSIN TO MICHIGAN TO DARK-SKY SITES OF NEW YORK TO MAINE.

[Skinem]