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gb
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PostSun Feb 17, 2019 10:37 am 
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Not immediately, but soon.

This amazing stretch of cool to cold weather finally looks like it will end around February 26th and then all the more so by March 2nd or so with temperatures going well above normal for at least several days. The cold weather will be replaced by warmer air and the promise of one or more of my other all-time favorite things, another blooming Pineapple Express.


All Things Must Pass
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gb
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PostSun Feb 17, 2019 11:09 am 
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Here comes the sun
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treeswarper
Alleged Sockpuppet!



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Alleged Sockpuppet!
PostSun Feb 17, 2019 2:02 pm 
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Here comes the flood.

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What's especially fun about sock puppets is that you can make each one unique and individual, so that they each have special characters. And they don't have to be human––animals and aliens are great possibilities
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Joseph
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Joseph
PostTue Feb 19, 2019 1:50 pm 
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And on April 15, we will all be singing...

Taxman

Where are you getting your information/ forecast ?  I am showing continued cold.
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MtnGoat
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PostTue Feb 19, 2019 2:34 pm 
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My 2 week forecast site shows continued cold and snow/winter mix through the 5th of March

gb's long term predictions tend to run hot  tongue.gif

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Diplomacy is the art of saying 'Nice doggie' until you can find a rock. - Will Rogers
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nordique
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PostWed Feb 20, 2019 8:25 pm 
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North Bend area forecast:

THURSDAY...Mostly sunny. Highs near 40. Southeast wind to 10 mph becoming northwest in the afternoon.

FRIDAY...Rain and snow likely in the morning, then rain and snow in the afternoon. Snow level near 500 feet increasing to 1000 feet in the afternoon. Highs near 40. South wind 10 to 15 mph.

SATURDAY...Rain and snow showers likely. Snow level near 1000 feet. Highs near 40.

SUNDAY...Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain and snow showers. Snow level near 500 feet. Highs near 40.

MONDAY...Mostly cloudy with a slight chance of snow showers. Highs near 40.

TUESDAY...Partly sunny. A slight chance of rain and snow in the morning, then a slight chance of rain in the afternoon. Snow level near 500 feet in the morning. Highs in the lower 40s.

WEDNESDAY...Mostly cloudy. A chance of rain and snow in the morning, then a chance of rain in the afternoon. Snow level near 1500 feet. Highs in the lower 40s.

Thanks for the forecast update, Gary!
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Bedivere
Why Do Witches Burn?



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Why Do Witches Burn?
PostWed Feb 20, 2019 10:56 pm 
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Even with all of our amazing 21st century technology, weather forecasts for this area simply aren't reliable more than 48-72 hours out. Sometimes the planets align and a forecast a week or more out turns out right, but the odds of that happening go way down once you get beyond that 72 hour window.

Only one thing's for sure - We are heading into spring and the weather *will* warm up from the rather chilly current state of affairs.

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Brushwork
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PostWed Feb 20, 2019 11:50 pm 
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I did see some Osmoronia showing a few blossoms today on lower Tiger 3 trail today. ( Indian plum).  and the sun was shining and actually warming on the summit....,   For a few minutes it was quite comfortable!  Surprising considering how winter like it was up there.

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Joey
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PostThu Feb 21, 2019 4:43 am 
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Brushwork wrote:
I did see some Osmoronia showing a few blossoms today on lower Tiger 3 trail today. ( Indian plum).

Our Indian plum was in record early bloom before the snopw hit.
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gb
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PostThu Feb 21, 2019 6:47 am 
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Bedivere wrote:
Even with all of our amazing 21st century technology, weather forecasts for this area simply aren't reliable more than 48-72 hours out. Sometimes the planets align and a forecast a week or more out turns out right, but the odds of that happening go way down once you get beyond that 72 hour window.

That all depends on the meteorological situation which can be rather static or highly volatile. Sometimes it is possible to forecast further out and sometimes not. When longer term forecasts are consistent on day to day runs in several consecutive runs they are likely to be rather accurate, but may miss the timing or significance of events. That can be true even of pretty short range forecasts as with the first of the recent snows as I recall they did not think Seattle/Puget Sound would get snow. More recently they have been over-forecasting how cold it is going to get as systems pass and the cold/Canadian air moves towards us. That is one of the reasons besides climatology that I think we will start to see a substantial change around the last day or so of February. Yesterday's morning GFX still shows a couple of Pineapple Expresses but has moved them to the SE Olympics and Oregon border. They still show a trend to above normal freezing levels the first few/several days of March here, but a day or so later than the run(s)-several-that I referred to. But they are still varying a bit, so we will see.

In 2012 I watched the SW Canadian situation for a couple of three days for the last ten days of September. They were very consistent, showing very good weather for about 7 days, then a one day rain, then two more days of good weather with the prospect of more good weather being hinted at. With a couple of family members I made reservations for a six day backpack (day two), reserved a room for day 8, and made another hard to get reservation for days nine and ten. When I arrived in Canada the forecasts still verified. The six days backpacking were beautiful. At a room in the Banff area on day 7 it rained all day probably around 3/4". The next two days were glorious. Almost at the end of September, then, the forecast beyond the end of this ten day period no longer looked as good. But there was one more good day so I hiked solo in the Purcells before heading home. The accuracy of these forecasts at this one point in time was remarkable and I was rewarded. So, it depends. I often plan trips 4-6 days out but continue to update depending on model run consistency and Forecast Discussion confirmation of what I think I see. The forecasters look at multiple models and interpret them for me, whereas I tend to look only at the GFS beyond 4 days. I think in planning any trip; and for any extended trip beyond late spring, the best way is to follow models for any extended trip north of about The Nevada border. Colorado trips are another place I would definitely follow long term forecast models before committing. I did that last September. I hiked 9 days and went to my nephew's wedding in Denver. If the weather hadn't looked very good I would simply have flown in and out for the wedding. There was one rainy day which looked a possibility when I left home but was under forecast initially (showed a chance of rain at the Wyoming/Colorado border only). But that was a driving day for us heading to Western Colorado and it cleared in the evening.

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Only one thing's for sure - We are heading into spring and the weather *will* warm up from the rather chilly current state of affairs.

Climatology, along with an unusual, longer term West coast pattern. Highly unusual.
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treeswarper
Alleged Sockpuppet!



Joined: 25 Dec 2006
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Alleged Sockpuppet!
PostThu Feb 21, 2019 8:20 am 
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It feels like summer here.  It was 31 when I got up.  Shorts weather.

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What's especially fun about sock puppets is that you can make each one unique and individual, so that they each have special characters. And they don't have to be human––animals and aliens are great possibilities
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jm31828
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PostThu Feb 21, 2019 8:41 am 
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Great, it's about time if that happens!  Normal high here in Seattle this time of year is 50, it's been horrible having it barely breaking 40 degrees each day.  Looking forward to normal or above normal temps!

But when I look at the 10 day forecast I am only seeing below normal highs into the first week of March?
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treeswarper
Alleged Sockpuppet!



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Alleged Sockpuppet!
PostThu Feb 21, 2019 9:04 am 
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jm31828 wrote:
Great, it's about time if that happens!  Normal high here in Seattle this time of year is 50, it's been horrible having it barely breaking 40 degrees each day.  Looking forward to normal or above normal temps!

But when I look at the 10 day forecast I am only seeing below normal highs into the first week of March?


Our heat wave was unexpected.  Last night's temps were supposed to be in the teens or low 20s here.  They missed it by a bit.  The weather rock method is looking pretty good right now.

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Schenk
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PostThu Feb 21, 2019 11:09 am 
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All I can say is that the fish, farmers, and snow sports aficionados appreciated this late shot in the arm of snow. smile.gif  up.gif

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Nature exists with a stark indifference to humans' situation.
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iron
getting old



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getting old
PostThu Feb 21, 2019 11:41 am 
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jm31828 wrote:
Great, it's about time if that happens!  Normal high here in Seattle this time of year is 50, it's been horrible having it barely breaking 40 degrees each day.  Looking forward to normal or above normal temps!

But when I look at the 10 day forecast I am only seeing below normal highs into the first week of March?

the bulk of the last 5 years has been way above average temperatures. nighttime low temps have been way way above average as well. 1 month of cold. boo hoo. the glaciers can be happy for perhaps 1 additional season before they all die off.

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man, you go through life, you try to be nice to people, you struggle to resist the urge to punch 'em in the face, and for what?

--- moe sizlack
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