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treeswarper
Alleged Sockpuppet!
Joined: 25 Dec 2006
Posts: 11279 | TRs | Pics
Location: Don't move here |
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treeswarper
Alleged Sockpuppet!
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 Sat Sep 23, 2023 7:01 am |
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| thunderhead wrote: | | Or in the case of tokyo you can add both earthquakes and hurricanes. Not a great example of a city to retreat to in order to avoid risk... |
Uh, in case you didn't know, geologists predict extreme damage west of I-5 from The Big One that hits our state occasionally. I-5 is used as a handy boundary that is easily understood, but not exact. It all depends on what your dwelling sits on, and how it was built. I'd say we have more in common with Tokyo than you think. I suspect they may be built at a higher standard to survive big quakes than the Sound area.
What's especially fun about sock puppets is that you can make each one unique and individual, so that they each have special characters. And they don't have to be human––animals and aliens are great possibilities
What's especially fun about sock puppets is that you can make each one unique and individual, so that they each have special characters. And they don't have to be human––animals and aliens are great possibilities
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neek
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Joined: 12 Sep 2011
Posts: 2338 | TRs | Pics
Location: Seattle, WA |
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neek
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Sat Sep 23, 2023 10:23 am |
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| Cyclopath wrote: | | They had enough data to be selling insurance six months ago, what changed? It's not that they lost all their data to a ransomware attack and no backups. They're doing this because they did the math. |
No argument there; the point is that things may change in the future. Thanks to lidar, google can now tell me if it's worthwhile to put solar panels on my roof. I am not sure how sophisticated insurance companies are, but where there's money, someone will find a way. Like someone in the article said, their place is not actually at high risk due to mitigation steps they took, so why were they dropped? As a temporary measure, I'm arguing, while the actuaries go back to the drawing board to figure things out. To use Ski's analogy - sure you can just ban the person who cracked the game...or you can change the game. Remember the guy who won the lottery 3 times in a row using math? You can't do that anymore. My argument is simply that people will figure out how to continue pushing the boundaries--that a few dropped insurance policies won't change behavior much and will probably just end up creating business opportunities (for those companies, or others). Of course I could be wrong, but the history of "progress" would suggest otherwise. We'll hit growth limits some day and can argue about when that will be or how it will go down, but so far from what I've seen, most predictions (Malthus, "peak oil", etc.) tend to underestimate human ingenuity.
 Anne Elk, Ski
Anne Elk, Ski |
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Cyclopath
Faster than light
Joined: 20 Mar 2012
Posts: 7752 | TRs | Pics
Location: Seattle |
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Cyclopath
Faster than light
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Sat Sep 23, 2023 10:31 am |
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| jinx'sboy wrote: | | If you want a gauge of where the popular view of ‘fire’ and forestry was 90 years ago….
A 1930 ‘cartoon’ - that looks to be straight out of the drug induced artistry of ‘Fantasia’! Apparently the first cartoon to win an Oscar…
https://www.facebook.com/reel/1238584996659389 |
Reminds me of this:
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thunderhead
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Joined: 14 Oct 2015
Posts: 1519 | TRs | Pics
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| treeswarper wrote: | | geologists predict extreme damage west of I-5 from The Big One that hits our state occasionally. |
No. Extreme damage west of 5 is a vast overstatement. Mostly hyped up by your standard incompetent journalist trying to sell clicks rather than actual geologists. Almost all wood frame and steel frame/reinforced structures will survive. Ya, dont be in an old brick building.
Regardless the tectonic threat to tokyo is higher than here and the typhoon threat infinitely higher. The nuclear threat to seattle is higher as is the civil war threat however.
Most places have some risk. Some more than others.
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Cyclopath
Faster than light
Joined: 20 Mar 2012
Posts: 7752 | TRs | Pics
Location: Seattle |
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Cyclopath
Faster than light
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Sat Sep 23, 2023 10:46 am |
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| neek wrote: | | sure you can just ban the person who cracked the game...or you can change the game. |
The game is burning up in fire. That's the one that needs to be changed, not how to pay for people to rebuild in places the rebuilding won't last. If we solve the fire problem, the money one goes away on its own; if we don't solve fire there's no solution to insurance.
| neek wrote: | | Like someone in the article said, their place is not actually at high risk due to mitigation steps they took, so why were they dropped? |
The goal isn't to get insurance coverage for one person who doesn't need it. It's to have a safety nest for all the people who are at risk.
Fires are more common and wiping out more of the insured. That's the fact of the matter. I don't like it either, but it's true.
MtnManic
MtnManic |
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CC
cascade curmudgeon
Joined: 13 Sep 2006
Posts: 647 | TRs | Pics
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CC
cascade curmudgeon
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Sat Sep 23, 2023 11:48 am |
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| thunderhead wrote: | | If you are talking about insurable risk the odds of your city being incinerated by a russian or chinese nuke is higher than my rural odds of burning in a wildfire. |
Actually damage from a nuclear war is not insurable, which is basically irrelevant. As has often been pointed out, if there is an all-out nuclear war, and there probably isn't any other kind, the people who die immediately will be the lucky ones.
First your legs go, then you lose your reflexes, then you lose your friends. Willy Pep
First your legs go, then you lose your reflexes, then you lose your friends. Willy Pep
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Cyclopath
Faster than light
Joined: 20 Mar 2012
Posts: 7752 | TRs | Pics
Location: Seattle |
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Cyclopath
Faster than light
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Sat Sep 23, 2023 11:55 am |
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| thunderhead wrote: | | If you are talking about insurable risk the odds of your city being incinerated by a russian or chinese nuke is higher than my rural odds of burning in a wildfire. |
Home insurance policies typically cover one year at a time. If you think Russia and China launching a nuclear attack on the west coast USA is more likely than a fire season happening next summer, you should sober up.
SpookyKite89
SpookyKite89 |
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CC
cascade curmudgeon
Joined: 13 Sep 2006
Posts: 647 | TRs | Pics
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CC
cascade curmudgeon
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Sat Sep 23, 2023 12:17 pm |
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| idoru wrote: | | According to this, I think they're confusing it with either the Rat Creek or the Hatchery fires. All of them happened in the same year. |
The map in that reference has the Rat Creek and Hatchery Creek fire labels switched, and left off Creek. So the Forest Service itself seems confused (60/40).
First your legs go, then you lose your reflexes, then you lose your friends. Willy Pep
First your legs go, then you lose your reflexes, then you lose your friends. Willy Pep
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altasnob
Member
Joined: 29 Aug 2007
Posts: 1415 | TRs | Pics
Location: Tacoma |
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altasnob
Member
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Sat Sep 23, 2023 12:45 pm |
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| neek wrote: | | Like someone in the article said, their place is not actually at high risk due to mitigation steps they took, so why were they dropped? |
The person claimed their home was low fire risk because of steps they took to mitigate the risk. But why should the insurance company accept that person's subjective opinion that their home is not high wild fire risk? Any home in the hills above Lake Chelan is high fire risk unless your structure is entirely built of concrete and steel and surrounded by a half mile of gravel (with regular application of herbicides to make sure no form of vegetation can grow). Everyone "thinks" their home is low fire risk.
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pipedream
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Joined: 14 Oct 2012
Posts: 228 | TRs | Pics
Location: Formerly Seattle |
| altasnob wrote: | | Americans love sprawl and love to build their houses farther out, and higher up, than the next guy |
Yes and no. But I do know who owns the highest hot tub in King County and they're damn proud of that.
I read an interesting short article in the most recent issue of TIME magazine about the insurance shitshow in FL. In a nutshell, lots of insurance companies are refusing to issue new policies to homeowners due to increasing damage costs from increasingly severe weather. So the state created its own agency, Citizens Property Insurance Corp, and when a major disaster (e.g. hurricane) occurs, they recoup their payouts to policy holders by charging private insurance companies still operating in the state. These agencies, in turn, pass the fees along to their customers and in the end, we all wind-up paying for things that potentially didn't even affect us.
Is it wrong? Depends on your perspective.
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Lazyhiker
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Joined: 08 Jul 2022
Posts: 224 | TRs | Pics
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| altasnob wrote: | | The person claimed their home was low fire risk because of steps they took to mitigate the risk. But why should the insurance company accept that person's subjective opinion that their home is not high wild fire risk? Any home in the hills above Lake Chelan is high fire risk unless your structure is entirely built of concrete and steel and surrounded by a half mile of gravel (with regular application of herbicides to make sure no form of vegetation can grow). Everyone "thinks" their home is low fire risk. |
This is pretty inaccurate. The hillside above Monitor and Sunnyslope on the southern flank of Burch Mountain north of Wenatchee has burned half a dozen times in the last 20 years with no houses lost. A small perimeter of defensible space is enough in shrub steppe. The Broadview fire that burned many houses was predictable though. A fire started in shrub steppe and was funneled into a narrow funnel shaped gully choked with brush and the yard waste that home owners had thrown over the bank into the gully. There was no effort at establishing defensible space because the people thought they were safe in the city limits. They might not have lost any homes if the HOA hadn’t required wood shake roofs. This area is no different than the hills around the populated areas on Chelan.
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Logbear
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Joined: 13 Sep 2006
Posts: 511 | TRs | Pics
Location: Getchell. Wash |
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Logbear
Member
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Sat Sep 23, 2023 1:45 pm |
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The data from the Caldor fire of 2021 is in, and the insurance companies now know that they were duped.
Insurance companies as well as various agencies, groups, and people, were told that if they... thinned, clear-cut, prescribe burned, created defensible space, logged, grazed, or simply paved over everything, that there wouldn't be severe fires.
What they learned was that it didn't matter what management technique they used. When the wind/weather became extreme the fire blew through everything. Nothing stopped it and nothing could stop it. The fire burned through swampy wetlands. The fire managers attacked the fire with helicopters and planes. Nothing would control the fire.
But it was a good fire for photo ops. It took a while to get these right. The smoke kept getting in the way. The night photos are especially dramatic. Note that the engine crew had to sit on the mountaintop for over 6 hours to get these shots.
“There is no such thing as bad weather, only inappropriate clothing.” – Sir Ranulph Fiennes
 Cyclopath
“There is no such thing as bad weather, only inappropriate clothing.” – Sir Ranulph Fiennes
Cyclopath
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Pyrites
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Joined: 16 Sep 2014
Posts: 1884 | TRs | Pics
Location: South Sound |
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Pyrites
Member
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Sat Sep 23, 2023 3:09 pm |
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Shake roofs. Isn’t that another way of saying kindling.
Keep Calm and Carry On?
Heck No.
Stay Excited and Get Outside!
Keep Calm and Carry On?
Heck No.
Stay Excited and Get Outside!
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Schroder
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Joined: 26 Oct 2007
Posts: 6722 | TRs | Pics
Location: on the beach |
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Schroder
Member
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Sun Sep 24, 2023 9:10 am |
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Cyclopath |
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jinx'sboy
Member
Joined: 30 Jul 2008
Posts: 932 | TRs | Pics
Location: on a great circle route |
| altasnob wrote: | | neek wrote: | | Like someone in the article said, their place is not actually at high |
The person claimed their home was low fire risk because of steps they took to mitigate the risk. But why should the insurance company accept that person's subjective opinion that their home is not high wild fire risk? Any home in the hills above Lake Chelan is high fire risk unless your structure is entirely built of concrete and steel and surrounded by a half mile of gravel (with regular application of herbicides to make sure no form of vegetation can grow). Everyone "thinks" their home is low fire risk. |
As neek points out - ‘risk’ does and can change. I have a friend in living in a small neighborhood downstream from Mazama. Apparently, many there have the same insurance company. Their agent told them “you’ll be dropped unless you do x, y and z”. They hired such work done and upon later inspection, retained their insurance. Insuring against a possible risk is a calculation - they changed those calculations by their efforts. Things do change….its what humans can do.
SpookyKite89
SpookyKite89 |
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