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Joey
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Joey
verrry senior member
PostWed Oct 12, 2016 5:02 am 
Snipped from NOAA forecast discussion this morning. I plan to spend all day outside on our place doing chores best done in dry weather. “Former Typhoon Songda will bring more wet and windy weather to Western Washington this weekend, and it poses a threat of a major Western Washington windstorm. The latest ECMWF solution looks especially threatening, with the low deepening to 966 mb off the coast of Oregon and tracking northeast right across Western Washington Saturday night. The GFS and Canadian models have a deeper low -- around 952 mb -- but keep it further west, tracking northeast across northern Vancouver Island. Even this solution could result in a windstorm though.”

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treeswarper
Alleged Sockpuppet!



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treeswarper
Alleged Sockpuppet!
PostWed Oct 12, 2016 5:33 am 
Yes, today will be spent "clearing the decks" and battening down things like the aluminum siding covering the woodpile. And topping off water containers-my well won't work when the power is off. The hot tub is full of flushing water though.

What's especially fun about sock puppets is that you can make each one unique and individual, so that they each have special characters. And they don't have to be human––animals and aliens are great possibilities
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thunderhead
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PostWed Oct 12, 2016 8:52 am 
Thursday night/early Friday also. Computer modeled winds/precip are currently pretty similar for the two systems.

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iron
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iron
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PostWed Oct 12, 2016 8:54 am 
i guess it's a bad time to not have an exterior door... damned remodeling.

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InFlight
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InFlight
coated in DEET
PostWed Oct 12, 2016 9:51 am 
iron wrote:
i guess it's a bad time to not have an exterior door... damned remodeling.
With multiple storms rolling through in the next week, a twenty dollar plywood 4'x8'x5/8" sheathing sheet might be good call. High winds and rain would not be a fun ride with a open doorway.

“I went to the woods because I wished to live deliberately...” ― Henry David Thoreau
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Snowday
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Snowday
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PostWed Oct 12, 2016 10:10 am 
From Cliff Mass's blog: Warning: Major Storms Threaten the Pacific Northwest
Quote:
Starting Thursday, we will enter a period of extraordinarily active weather with the potential for heavy rain, flooding, and a highly dangerous windstorm with the potential to be an historic event. The coastal waters and shoreline areas could well experience hurricane-force gusts, with a lesser but serious threat for strong winds over the interior. Keep in mind that there is still uncertainty in the forecasts, more so for the wind than the rain.
Quote:
A true monster storm, potentially as strong as the most powerful storm in NW history (the Columbus Day Storm of 1962) will be approaching our area on Saturday. The UW WRF sea level pressure forecast for 5 AM Saturday morning shows the approaching cyclone. The central pressure is an amazing 961 mb, with an unbelievably strong pressure gradient around it.

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David Cole
Waterfall lover



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David Cole
Waterfall lover
PostWed Oct 12, 2016 12:52 pm 
So much for my planned Chain Lakes Loop hike on Saturday. frown.gif Good news: The waterfalls and rivers in the Cascades should be raging. Bad news: You might get killed trying to reach them.

"The mountains are calling and I must go." -- John Muir web | twitter | facebook
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Token Civilian
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PostWed Oct 12, 2016 3:59 pm 
Hmmm....hopefully last year brought down all the weak trees and next year is only an "average" for blow down on the trails. It would suck to have back to back heavy blow down years. The only upside it does allow one to polish ones sawing skills.

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Schroder
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PostWed Oct 12, 2016 5:07 pm 
Jeff wrote:
What's the concern here? Just power outages and falling trees or am I missing something else?
Really heavy rain as well. Possible record winds equaling the 1962 Columbus Day storm, coinciding with the highest tides of the year. I spent today sand bagging.
Quote:
Storm #1 (tonight/Thursday) • Deep surface low tracking into Central Vancouver Island Thursday night • Strongest winds most likely along the coast and in the north interior. • The exact timing, location and strength of significant winds still depends on the track and strength of the surface low , which can still change. • 1 to 2 inches of rain over the lowlands and 2 to 4 inches in the mountains. • Heavier accumulations of 5 or more inches are possible especially along the south facing slopes of the Olympic mountains Wednesday night through Thursday. • Snow levels will remain high, above 7000 feet during the heaviest rainfall Wednesday evening and Thursday, lowering to 5000 to 6000 ft on Friday. • A second, potentially stronger Pacific storm system will affect the region on Saturday and Sunday. • Models continue to show a very deep surface low tracking into the area that may bring heavier precipitation and even stronger winds than Thursday's system. • In addition to rainfall and winds, this system will also bring seas greater than 30 feet to the coastal waters of Washington and the potential for significant coastal flooding. http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/sew//event/October_12-16_2016_public.pdf

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Joey
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Joey
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PostWed Oct 12, 2016 5:17 pm 
Well if you lose power for 1/2 hour and your life is not otherwise disrupted, then no big deal. On the other hand, after the 1993 Inauguration Day windstorm we did not have power for 6.5 days. Our neighborhood is 4 miles NE of downtown Redmond. Sometime after a major wind storm the power company will likely send out 2-truck teams to survey the damage. If your neighborhood is declared one of the "hardest hit" (typically because poles need to be replaced) then you go to the end of the line for repair. This enables the power company to get the most people back online the fastest. All things considered though, we get by reasonably well in an extended outage. We are on city water with gravity septic. Also we have a woodstove and generator. One thing I still need to do is connect with an electrician so I can have a small transfer switch installed just for the oil furnace blower. Typically we would just run the oil furnace blower on low rpm since that helps to circulate the woodstove heat through the house. Of course in the morning after the generator is running it would be nice to run the oil furnace for a bit while the woodstove is getting going.

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iron
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iron
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PostWed Oct 12, 2016 5:21 pm 
joey: which woodstove do you have? i agree re: the generator switch. would be nice to hook things up to the house panel. our area (kenmore) loses power on blue sky days with no wind...

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treeswarper
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treeswarper
Alleged Sockpuppet!
PostWed Oct 12, 2016 5:25 pm 
I need to download some books. I am a bookaholic and about went crazy during one flood event when I was cut off from the library. Since then, I buy emergency books to have and now can download too. I guess I've got everything ready. I might move a pickup so I don't have everything where one falling tree could smoosh it.

What's especially fun about sock puppets is that you can make each one unique and individual, so that they each have special characters. And they don't have to be human––animals and aliens are great possibilities
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Joey
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Joey
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PostWed Oct 12, 2016 7:39 pm 
iron wrote:
which woodstove do you have?
I upgrade a few years ago and now have a Jotul F 500. Glass front door for viewing. Large side door for loading. <== Very nice feature Secondary combustion. (i.e. no catalytic converter) Heavy! Glad I paid to have it installed. I added some simple round duct work so it uses exterior combustion air. Our house is a very ordinary 1960’s split level. Translation: large downstairs rec room with a fireplace. The woodstove stands in front of that fireplace and vents into a round liner in the brick chimney. The stove burns so clean I only need to clean the chimney once per year. Of course one downside of burning wood is the dirt that the wood drags in. With that in mind, one of the first remodels we did after buying 20+ years ago was to add a closet near the wood stove. There is a hatch through the exterior wall of the house that opens into the closet. I can open that hatch and pitch a goodly amount of wood into the closet. This system minimizes the dirt impact in the house. Another useful remodel was to add a cold air return for the oil furnace. This return draws air warmed by the wood stove from the ceiling of the rec room. Since the furnace blower runs 24x7 (to draw air through an electronic air cleaner) this helps to circulate the warm air through the house.
treeswarper wrote:
I might move a pickup so I don't have everything where one falling tree could smoosh it.
You are singing my song. Our pickup lives under an extension of the horse barn roof. There are 3 huge firs just to windward. I will likely move the truck out into the pasture and let it get watered. Sure hate to have the wind modify the pickup it into a ‘flatbed’.

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ranger rock
One of the boys



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ranger rock
One of the boys
PostWed Oct 12, 2016 9:08 pm 
• Heavier accumulations of 5 or more inches are possible especially along the south facing slopes of the Olympic mountains Wednesday night through Thursday. Oh boy, it's going to be interesting around here. I hope we keep our power since my spouse is on oxygen.

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Bedivere
Why Do Witches Burn?



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Bedivere
Why Do Witches Burn?
PostWed Oct 12, 2016 9:18 pm 
ranger rock wrote:
I hope we keep our power since my spouse is on oxygen.
Yikes! you need a generator!

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